A new study by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, published in Nature Geoscience, uncovers the powerful influence of soil moisture on rainfall in megastorm-prone regions. The research shows that areas with significant differences in soil moisture can experience up to 30% more rainfall during storms. This effect was particularly noticeable in regions such as West Africa, India, and South America. By analyzing two decades of satellite data and computer simulations, the study found that these soil moisture disparities can be detected 2-5 days before storms form, offering valuable time for early warning systems.
The findings suggest that regions with stark wet-dry contrasts in soil moisture are more vulnerable to intense rainfall, which can lead to dangerous consequences like flash flooding and mudslides. This is especially concerning for countries like India, where millions of people live in areas susceptible to extreme weather events. With the integration of soil moisture data into storm forecasting, meteorologists could potentially improve the accuracy of early warnings, allowing affected communities to take precautionary measures. The study underscores the importance of considering soil conditions as a factor in understanding and predicting the intensity of future storms. More