The Russian government anticipates a significant rise in vehicle scrappage fee revenues, projecting an increase from 1.12 trillion roubles ($13.4 billion) in 2025 to nearly 1.65 trillion roubles ($19.7 billion) in 2026, representing a 46.7% jump. This forecast comes even as the domestic automotive market continues to struggle, with new car sales down 23% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 and expected to fall by 25% for the full year. The projected revenue growth is largely due to the annual indexation of scrappage fees and a possible rebound in vehicle production.
To support domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports, Russia increased scrappage fees by 70–85% in October 2024, with planned annual hikes of 10–20% through 2030. These fees, applied to both local producers and importers, are intended to fund the safe disposal and recycling of vehicles. While higher fees have contributed to rising car prices and weaker sales, the government remains confident that revenues will continue to grow, driven by the scheduled fee increases and potential recovery in vehicle output. More