A new analysis from climate policy experts and anti-war organizations warns that NATO’s escalating military build-up could contribute an additional 200 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually—more than the combined annual emissions of the Netherlands and Denmark. The surge is tied to increased defense spending across NATO’s 32 member states, many of whom have pledged to meet or exceed the alliance’s target of allocating 2% of GDP to military expenditure. This expansion, spurred by global security threats such as the war in Ukraine and tensions with China, includes large-scale production of fighter jets, warships, tanks, and heavy artillery—some of the most carbon-intensive sectors in the industrial complex.
Currently, military emissions are often exempt from national climate targets and are poorly tracked under international frameworks like the UNFCCC. Researchers note that most countries either underreport or completely omit emissions from military operations, overseas bases, and supply chains. This lack of transparency means the full environmental cost of militarization remains hidden. The report calls for urgent policy reforms: mandatory carbon reporting for armed forces, investment in greener defense technologies, and redirecting a portion of military budgets toward sustainable, peacebuilding initiatives. Without these changes, experts warn that NATO’s rearmament drive could undermine Europe’s Green Deal, global net-zero pledges, and the fragile balance between planetary security and peace. More