A growing disagreement over China is testing the unity of the Pacific Islands Forum, after Naoero and Kiribati did not support a stronger regional response to China’s July 6 ballistic-missile test in the Pacific. The missile was launched from a Chinese submarine and travelled across the Pacific before falling near Tuvalu’s wider maritime zone. China described the test as routine military training, but several Pacific countries were concerned about the security implications and the lack of consultation with the region. The disagreement shows how difficult it is becoming for Pacific nations to present a united position when their relationships with China are increasingly different.
The issue is also closely connected to the growing geopolitical competition in the Pacific. Kiribati shifted diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019, while Naoero established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 2024 after previously recognising Taiwan. China has since strengthened its economic and diplomatic engagement with both countries. For the Pacific Islands Forum, this creates a difficult balancing act. Pacific nations want development, investment and stronger regional partnerships, but they also want to protect their sovereignty and avoid becoming caught between major powers. The Pacific should not become another battlefield for geopolitical competition; its countries need to be able to make their own decisions and speak for their own region. More