Brazil’s plan to develop large industrial-scale cocoa farms is losing momentum after global cocoa prices collapsed sharply from their recent highs. Prices, which surged above $11,000 per tonne in 2024, have now dropped to around $3,000 per tonne, making many large farming projects financially risky. Investors had planned to expand cocoa cultivation across Brazil’s northeast with around 75,000 hectares of new plantations, potentially producing nearly 225,000 tonnes of cocoa beans — close to 5% of global supply. But analysts say most large-scale projects only become profitable when prices remain well above current levels.
The expansion plans gained attention when cocoa prices spiked due to poor harvests in West Africa, the world’s main cocoa-producing region. As supply conditions improved and prices cooled, many agribusiness firms and investors began reconsidering or delaying their projects. The slowdown could also affect global efforts to diversify cocoa production beyond West Africa, leaving the market more vulnerable to future climate shocks and supply disruptions. More